The world already has one strait constrained. Now Yemen’s Houthi movement is eyeing a second one. If the Bab al-Mandab Strait goes, the entire energy artery connecting the Gulf to Europe breaks at both ends simultaneously. That has never happened before.
Executive Summary
Yemen’s Houthi movement is openly weighing a blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait — the 29-kilometre chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Iran already constrained the Strait of Hormuz. If Bab al-Mandab goes down too, it severs up to 30% of the world’s seaborne oil from its main route. The US Maritime Administration warned ships in the region to brace for attacks. While no formal blockade has been executed yet, the threat is very real, and the rugged geography makes it incredibly hard to stop.
What Is the Bab al-Mandab Strait
Bab al-Mandab means “Gate of Tears” in Arabic. The name comes from the strait’s historically treacherous navigation conditions. Strong currents, a narrow passage, and ruthless geography have swallowed ships here for centuries. It sits at the southern end of the Red Sea, wedged between Yemen on one side and Djibouti and Eritrea on the other. At its narrowest point, the Bab al-Mandab Strait is just 29 kilometres wide. That is roughly the distance from one end of a mid-sized city to the other.
About 12% of the world’s seaborne trade passes through this narrow gap. That is a massive volume of global commerce squeezed into a tiny, vulnerable space. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, over 30 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas passed through during just the first 11 months of 2023, alongside 6.2 million barrels of oil per day.
Imagine a massive container ship leaving Singapore for Europe. It has two options. It can squeeze through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, then sail north through the Suez Canal. Or, it can take a 15-day, $1 million detour all the way around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. For a global shipping industry running on razor-thin margins, call it what it is: a crisis.
Key Takeaways
- The Bab al-Mandab Strait is 29 kilometres wide at its narrowest point and handles roughly 12% of global seaborne trade, including 6.2 million barrels of oil daily.
- Houthi political bureau member Mohammed al-Bukhaiti confirmed the movement is weighing a naval blockade targeting vessels from countries hostile to Iran.
- The US Maritime Administration formally warned ships to brace for attacks, tracking over 100 Houthi strikes on commercial vessels since November 2023.
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) is tracking severe supply vulnerabilities, while major carriers like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have already paused all Trans-Suez sailings.
- A simultaneous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait could disrupt up to 30% of the world’s seaborne oil.
- Oil prices have surged toward $110 per barrel. Goldman Sachs analysts warn a credible threat could push prices to $120.
What the Houthi Movement Is Saying
The warnings are coming from every level of Houthi command. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi political bureau, told RIA Novosti on March 20 that the movement is examining “various courses of action” to support Iran. He noted any closure would target ships linked to countries fighting Iran, Lebanon, Palestine, or Iraq. That casts a very wide net. The US, UK, and their allies all fall right into it.
Abed al-Thawr, a Houthi military official, got even more specific. He told Press TV that the first step could be an official naval blockade against the US and Israel. He added that Houthi forces might stop any merchant ships or warships — including aircraft carriers — headed toward those territories. Mohammed Mansour, the movement's deputy minister of press, simply told CNN the closure was “an option on the table.”
But here is the kicker: The group hasn't executed a full closure yet. The Houthi movement has a long history of using threat escalation as leverage. During the Gaza war, they threatened to close the strait multiple times. Instead, they chose targeted attacks. It disrupted shipping and achieved their goals without the political cost of a full shutdown. However, the current war is much larger, and direct Iranian involvement changes the math entirely.
Recent reporting from The Times indicates Houthi forces are waiting for a signal from Iran to resume attacks if US military actions weaken Tehran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz. That signal hasn't come yet. But right now, roughly 30 tankers near the Saudi port city of Yanbu are sitting dead inside Houthi strike range.
The Terrain: Why This Is Hard to Stop
The geography makes defending this water a nightmare. Yemen’s western coastline along the Red Sea is mountainous and deeply fragmented. It is the exact same rugged terrain that broke a multi-billion-dollar Saudi military campaign a decade ago. From these hidden coastal positions, Houthi forces deploy drones, anti-ship missiles, and uncrewed surface vehicles — essentially remote-controlled boat bombs.
They have done this before. During the 2023–2024 Red Sea attacks, Houthi forces repurposed commercial vessels as forward operating platforms to launch drones far from their coastline. Ships indistinguishable from civilian traffic, launching attacks across a wide corridor. That capability has not gone away.
A regional security analyst quoted by The National summed it up perfectly: “By increasing the perceived risk to shipping, they made the route commercially unattractive.” They don't need to sink every ship. They just have to drive insurance premiums through the roof and make the risk mathematically unacceptable. In July 2025, Houthi forces sank two bulk carriers — the Magic Seas and Eternity C — near Hodeidah. They didn't need a formal blockade to make their point.
Can the US Conquer or Control It
The US Navy is already patrolling the waters. Operation Prosperity Guardian has been escorting commercial vessels since December 2023. But two years of Red Sea combat proves that naval escorts can only do so much against a determined enemy.
It is not just Washington out there. The European Union’s Operation Aspides and the 42-nation Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) are actively intercepting threats, while Saudi Arabia has heavily fortified its own coast. The allied defensive umbrella is massive. Sustained US airstrikes under Operation Rough Rider have definitely degraded Houthi capabilities. Yet, backed by Iranian supply lines and deep underground bunkers, the Houthi movement absorbs the hits, rebuilds, and keeps firing.
As for a ground invasion? No serious military analyst wants to send troops into one of the most hostile environments on earth to fight a force that already fought Saudi Arabia to a standstill. The hard truth: international navies can swat away missiles and mitigate risk, but they cannot eliminate the asymmetric threat.
If It Closes: What Happens to the World
There is no polite way to put this: we are staring down a massive supply shock. The rerouting math is brutal. Adding 15 days to every voyage around the Cape of Good Hope burns more fuel, wastes crew time, and accelerates vessel depreciation.
The Escalation Timeline
- Week 1: Immediate shipping reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope. Marine insurance premiums for the region spike exponentially, halting localized trade.
- Month 1: Initial energy supply shock hits European markets. Freight costs peak globally, triggering rapid, localized inflation surges in consumer goods.
- Month 3+: Severe supply chain fractures take hold. Agricultural shortfalls hit developing nations, escalating global recession risks as energy margins vanish.
It gets worse. Europe takes a direct hit. Qatar is Europe’s second-largest supplier of liquefied natural gas, and those tankers rely on the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Qatar already halted LNG shipments through the strait once when US-led airstrikes raised risks. If that route permanently closes, European energy prices will skyrocket in a market already bleeding from the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck.
Even more concerning is food security. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has highlighted compounding supply risks, while global fertiliser supply has already shrunk by 33% due to the Iran war. Many of the bulk carriers using the Red Sea route haul agricultural goods, not just oil. Countries across East Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East depend on these affordable import routes for daily staples. They are sitting directly in the economic line of fire.
The Double Chokepoint Problem
How the Global Oil Route Breaks
The mechanics of a double chokepoint failure — two major global oil exits blocked at the exact same time. Think of it like having the only two highways out of your city shut down simultaneously.
- Step 1: The Gulf Exit Constrained → Iran restricts flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Step 2: The Red Sea Entry Blocked → The Houthi movement seals the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
- Step 3: The Suez Severed → With zero access to the Suez Canal, global shipping is forced into a costly, months-long Africa reroute.
This is what makes a Hormuz Bab al-Mandab oil disruption so dangerous. The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait are sequential chokepoints on the exact same energy artery. Oil leaves the Gulf through Hormuz. It reaches Europe and Asia through Bab al-Mandab. If you block both, the route shatters from end to end.
Saudi Arabia has one partial workaround: the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz via pipeline. But if the Bab al-Mandab Strait closes, Yanbu’s exports can't reach the Suez Canal. Saudi Arabia effectively loses its last viable maritime export route. This is not just a disruption. It is a systemic break in the global energy corridor. With oil already surging toward $110 a barrel, Goldman Sachs warns a credible threat from the Houthi movement could easily push it to $120.
On March 26, 2026, the US Maritime Administration formally warned vessels with US, Israeli, or UK ties to brace for hostile actions. This isn't merely a prediction. It’s the US government officially bracing for impact.
Editorial View · Santhosh Vishwamitra
Two Straits. One War. Every Country on the Receiving End.
Geopolitical numbers are just abstract noise until they hit supply lines. The ships carrying grain to Yemen, cooking oil to Bangladesh, and fertiliser to East Africa all transit the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The people bleeding first aren't shipping executives sitting comfortably in boardrooms—they’re families across East Africa and South Asia who are already drowning in inflation from the Strait of Hormuz constraints.
The Houthi movement hasn't executed a full blockade yet, but Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM have already paused Trans-Suez sailings. The market isn't waiting for a formal declaration to price in the risk.
No airstrike or naval escort will fix the real problem—it's bigger than bullets. The only thing that secures the Bab al-Mandab Strait is a resolution to the broader Iran war. But here is the cold reality: even a diplomatic resolution would take months to normalize shipping confidence. Until then, the strait stays in the crosshairs—and the rest of the world keeps footing the bill.
The Bottom Line
The Bab al-Mandab Strait hasn't officially closed yet. But with shipping heavyweights already fleeing and the US Maritime Administration issuing formal warnings, markets are already pricing in severe disruption risk. The double chokepoint is the ultimate worst-case scenario for global trade — and it is no longer hypothetical.
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Santhosh Vishwamitra
Web Developer and Founder of Inside Stories — Where Global Politics Meets Perspective. Specializing objective geopolitical analysis, I break down complex global conflicts without mainstream bias, and delivering verified facts with unvarnished truth.
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