On April 7, the Trump administration and Iranian leadership agreed to a 14-day pause in a conflict that has already reshaped the Middle East. The announcement came just hours before a catastrophic escalation. According to Axios [1], the deal was the result of high-stakes mediation by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir.
The conflict—triggered by "Operation Epic Fury" on February 28—had devolved into a grueling war of attrition. While US strikes reportedly dismantled significant portions of Iran's missile infrastructure and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the economic fallout was global. Oil prices surged past $100 as the IRGC effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy artery.
Key Takeaways
- Pakistan successfully mediated a 14-day ceasefire between Washington and Tehran to prevent strikes on civilian infrastructure.
- Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz but maintains a "coordination" protocol that effectively grants it gatekeeping power.
- The war has cost the US military an estimated $18 billion to $31 billion, with GCC countries reporting losses estimated to exceed $120 billion.
- Reports indicate decentralized IRGC units continued firing drones and missiles hours after the official ceasefire announcement.
- Formal peace negotiations are scheduled for April 10 in Islamabad, led by US Vice President JD Vance.
How We Got Here
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes across Iran in an operation announced by Trump in multiple statements as "Operation Epic Fury." The stated goal, according to US officials, was dismantling Iran's missile and nuclear infrastructure. Reports indicate that within that same operation, Israeli strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in his compound in Tehran—an event later confirmed by Iranian state media.
Iran responded immediately. It launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel, at US military bases across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan, and closed the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic. According to early accounts, this was the first time in modern history that Iran struck every Gulf Cooperation Council country simultaneously. This represents a significant escalation with no clear stabilizing mechanism.
The global economic impact was immediate. Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel. Roughly a fifth of the world's daily oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping halted, insurance premiums spiked, and markets turned volatile.
By early April, the US military estimated its own war costs at an estimated $18 billion to $31 billion. Arab nations reported combined losses estimated to exceed $120 billion. Iran's infrastructure was heavily damaged, but reports indicate it was still launching an estimated 15 to 30 ballistic missiles and reported counts of 50 to 100 drones per day, according to a Western official cited by journalists [5].
The war was grinding on with no clean ending in sight.
The Ceasefire That Almost Did Not Happen
By April 5, negotiations for a 45-day ceasefire were actively underway through Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish intermediaries. Iran reportedly rejected a shorter US proposal, demanding a permanent end to the war rather than a temporary pause. Trump called the proposal "a significant step" but "not good enough."
Trump then set a hard deadline: Iran had until Tuesday, April 7, at 8 PM ET to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face "massive" strikes on civilian infrastructure, including bridges, power plants, and water treatment facilities. According to early assessments, he extended the deadline once by 20 hours before it held firm [2].
On Tuesday afternoon, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted publicly on X, asking Iran to reopen the Strait for two weeks as a goodwill gesture, and requesting Trump extend his deadline correspondingly. Reports indicate Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir was working back channels simultaneously.
Hours before the deadline, Trump posted on Truth Social announcing a two-week ceasefire. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed acceptance shortly after. The US military paused strikes. Financial markets reacted instantly, with S&P 500 futures rising more than 1% and oil futures dropping around 6%.
Pakistan, with its unique position as a country maintaining ties with both Washington and Tehran, pulled off a last-minute diplomatic intervention that few expected to work.
The Strait of Hormuz: The Real Pressure Point
The Strait of Hormuz was never just a military target. It was Iran's most effective economic weapon. When Iran closed it in late February, more than 150 freight ships, including dozens of oil tankers, were reported stalled at the entrance. Global shipping companies scrambled for alternative routes. LNG prices surged across Europe and Asia.
Iran's 10-point proposal included a demand for ships to pay a reported $2 million fee per vessel to pass, with Iran retaining control of the transit protocol. According to US sources, that was not acceptable.
What was agreed under the ceasefire is more limited: Iran will allow "safe passage via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations," as Araghchi stated [3]. That language is important. Before the war, over 100 ships passed daily under a decades-old traffic management system with no Iranian gatekeeping. What exists now is not that. Iran has inserted itself into the transit process, at least for now.
Iran's 10-point ceasefire demands also included lifting of all US and international sanctions, an end to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, and withdrawal of US combat forces from the region. According to official communications, none of those have been agreed to. They are subjects for the Islamabad talks.
Missiles After the Ceasefire
Within hours of Trump's ceasefire announcement, air raid sirens were reported across the Gulf and in Israel. Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia all reported incoming missile and drone threats. Reports indicate a fire at the Habshan gas processing facility in Abu Dhabi [4]. Qatar's defense ministry said it successfully intercepted a missile. Israel's military said it identified multiple missile launches from Iran and was working to intercept them.
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly issued an order for all military branches to stop firing roughly two hours after Trump's announcement. But Iran runs a decentralized defense structure. Individual IRGC commanders operate with a degree of autonomy off predetermined target lists. Getting that order to all units takes time, and some units may not have received or acknowledged it.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council's formal statement accepting the ceasefire included an explicit line: "This does not signify the termination of the war. Our hands remain upon the trigger, and should the slightest error be committed by the enemy, it shall be met with full force."
A ceasefire was announced. Whether it is holding on the ground is a separate question.
What Both Sides Are Claiming
Trump wrote that the US had "already met and exceeded all military objectives" and that the deal was a path toward "long-term peace." He described Iran's 10-point proposal as "workable."
Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement claiming victory, saying it had forced the US to accept its framework, including lifting of sanctions and acceptance of nuclear enrichment. This remains unconfirmed by the US side.
Reports indicate that Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu was skeptical of any ceasefire deal throughout the negotiations. He had urged Trump to reject any agreement that did not include full Iranian surrender of enriched uranium. Netanyahu is on record stating that Israel has "additional plans for the upcoming weeks" pending a US green light.
Gulf states, which suffered the heaviest collateral damage from Iranian strikes, were not party to the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire. According to local reporting, the UAE reportedly intercepted approximately 520 ballistic missiles and an estimated 2,221 drones during the war. It recalled its ambassador to Israel. Quietly furious does not begin to cover it. These countries absorbed weeks of Iranian fire for a war Washington started without asking them.
Three different parties are now claiming three different versions of what this means. That is not a stable foundation.
Islamabad Talks: What Is Actually on the Table
The US and Iran are expected to begin formal talks in Islamabad on April 10. Reports suggest US Vice President JD Vance is leading the American delegation. Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif has invited both sides and framed the talks as an opportunity to "settle all disputes."
The gap between the two sides remains large. Iran wants sanctions lifted, nuclear enrichment rights preserved, and a guarantee it will not be attacked again. The US wants Iran's highly enriched uranium either removed from the country or diluted, and a permanent end to Hezbollah's military activity in Lebanon. Reports indicate Israel wants complete Iranian nuclear disarmament and has privately signaled it may act independently if it believes the talks give Iran room to rebuild.
Two weeks is not enough time to resolve any of this. The Islamabad talks, at best, produce an agreement on an extended ceasefire and a framework for further talks. At worst, they collapse before they get started, and two weeks from now both sides are back at war. That is a real possibility, not a dramatic one.
What to Watch Next (Next 72 Hours)
As the ceasefire enters its early stages, the following indicators will determine its survival:
- Movement in Strait traffic volume: Analysts are monitoring whether major shipping firms like Maersk or Hapag-Lloyd resume transits or continue to wait for a verified "safe passage" track record.
- Israeli military posture: Despite the US-led pause, reports indicate Israeli units remain on high alert. Any "independent" strike by Israel would likely collapse the Islamabad talks before they begin.
- Statements from Tehran post–April 10: The tone of the first 24 hours of negotiations in Pakistan will signal whether this is a genuine diplomatic pivot or a tactical reload.
- Oil price behavior: Markets are looking for a break below $90. If prices remain stubborn, it indicates a deep lack of market confidence in the ceasefire's durability.
Editorial View
Editorial View · Santhosh Vishwamitra
Call it what it is: a timeout, not a peace deal. Both sides are declaring victory because neither side actually won. Iran lost its supreme leader, much of its missile infrastructure, and weeks of economic output. The US spent an estimated $18 billion to $31 billion, pulled its allies into a war they did not want, and failed to reopen the Strait cleanly. Israel got what it wanted militarily but now has to sit on the sidelines while diplomats negotiate the terms it finds unacceptable.
Pakistan deserves credit for pulling this off. But according to multiple reports, the ceasefire only happened because Trump appeared to be hours away from strikes on civilian infrastructure that multiple legal experts described as potential war crimes. That is what created the opening. Fear of a catastrophic escalation, not strategic wisdom, produced this pause.
The Islamabad talks will be hard. Iran will not surrender its uranium. Israel will not accept Iran keeping it. The US is negotiating a deal while its regional allies are still counting their losses. This is not a situation that resolves neatly in two weeks. Watch what happens on April 10 very carefully.
Santhosh Vishwamitra
Web Developer and Founder of Inside Stories, launched in February 2026.
Transparency Note: This analysis uses publicly available sources, presents multiple viewpoints, and avoids partisan bias.
US and Iran agree to a 2-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. Explore the mechanics of the deal, Strait of Hormuz status, and Islamabad talks.
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